{"id":102,"date":"2026-08-16T17:00:37","date_gmt":"2026-08-16T17:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/think-twice.me\/?p=102"},"modified":"2026-08-16T17:34:40","modified_gmt":"2026-08-16T17:34:40","slug":"ai-wont-solve-work-theater","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/think-twice.me\/?p=102","title":{"rendered":"AI won\u2019t solve Work Theater"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What is work theater?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s the idea that at large companies the incentive to deliver something real to the customer becomes a small fraction of work, and is subsumed by things that internally <em>seem<\/em> like bigger or more substantial projects to management but often aren\u2019t. Here\u2019s a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lesswrong.com\/posts\/pHfPvb4JMhGDr4B7n\/recursive-middle-manager-hellI\">pretty good take<\/a> on it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Building more was never the answer<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of the biggest lies of work theater is \u201ckeep your head down, don\u2019t ask questions, especially don\u2019t challenge the direction, and if we aren\u2019t succeeding just buckle down.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This advice, which boils down to &#8220;Think less, act more&#8221; is good advice <em>when you know exactly what to build<\/em>. The challenge is that even when you <em>think <\/em>you know exactly what to build, you never know what unknown-unknowns may be at play. When you don&#8217;t know exactly what to build <strong>do the opposite<\/strong>: slow down, ask more questions, and solicit input from a wider range of people. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The AI era promises a much faster 0->1 transition (when you know what to build). But it does <em>nothing<\/em> to help with where to strategically go from there (when you don&#8217;t know where your next 10x comes from). In fact, it makes it exponentially easier to play out the theatrics of progress (look at all this motion! So many tickets! So many changes!) while treading water quarter after quarter.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When I look at big companies that fail (yahoo et al), the failure is almost never because they couldn&#8217;t build fast enough. It&#8217;s that they didn&#8217;t know where to focus. <strong>Thus, I don&#8217;t see AI fundamentally helping large companies.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Layers Of Management<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lesswrong.com\/posts\/pHfPvb4JMhGDr4B7n\/recursive-middle-manager-hellI\">Recursive Middle Manager Hell<\/a> Raemon proposes the primary factor of company waste is middle-management-layers. I\u2019ve worked at a dozen tech companies, and this squares pretty well with what I\u2019ve seen \u2013 it\u2019s not the only factor that matters but it\u2019s one of the biggest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The anti-pattern of building-the-wrong-thing doesn\u2019t get solved by a 2x or 3x speed-up.<\/strong> Thus my prediction (and experience) is that companies with more than 4 levels of managers (including executives) are going to see small or negative improvement from agentic work. The reason I could foresee negative is that AI expands the capacity of the most optics-driven career-oriented engineer to create drag on everybody around them (tech debt).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Conversely I think that companies with three levels of management or less will see significant acceleration, as fewer people can get more done. <\/strong>They will be able to achieve 0->1 more quickly, and build out numerous integrations and basic features.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ultimately<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is probably a good thing. Competition forces a superior user experience, and large lazy incumbent companies (be it Yahoo in 2010 or Meta in 2026) should raise the bar on what they deliver or be replaced.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What is work theater? It\u2019s the idea that at large companies the incentive to deliver something real to the customer becomes a small fraction of work, and is subsumed by things that internally seem like bigger or more substantial projects to management but often aren\u2019t. Here\u2019s a pretty good take on it. Building more was&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-102","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/think-twice.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/think-twice.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/think-twice.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/think-twice.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/think-twice.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=102"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/think-twice.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":112,"href":"https:\/\/think-twice.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102\/revisions\/112"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/think-twice.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=102"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/think-twice.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=102"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/think-twice.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=102"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}